GDP contraction in the third quarter was higher than the Inegi estimate; stayed at 0.4%

The mexican economy registered the first post-pandemic fall in the third quarter of the year, completing a 0.4% decrease in real terms and with seasonally adjusted figures compared to the previous quarter, confirmed the National Institute of Statistic and Geography (Inegi).

This quarterly rate incorporates an adjustment with respect to the timely estimate that Inegi released 21 days ago, when it projected that the quarterly contraction could be located at 0.2 percent.

As the president of Inegi explained, Julius santaella On its official twitter account @SantaellaJulio, GDP registered its first decline in the third quarter, after 4 consecutive quarters of recovery after the contraction due to the pandemic.

When presenting the results, the Institute that records the official statistics of the economic activity it also adjusted the growth rates of the previous quarters, incorporating much more precise data on the performance of the activity. There, you can see how the recovery was losing strength, evidencing the absence of an internal stimulus in the economy, and the impact that the solid tax incentive what gave USA to its inhabitants and that it was also spilled in Mexico in the form of remittances and demand for exports, Alejandro Valerio, analyst at risk from the Frontier View consultancy, explained from Washington.

Thus, according to adjusted data, in the third quarter of 2020, the strongest rebound in GDP was recorded, of 13.8% compared to the previous quarter; a rate that incorporates an adjustment from the 12.5% ​​previously registered by Inegi.

For the last quarter of last year, the performance moderated, showing an advance of 2.9%, also against the previous record, which contrasts with the 3.2% previously estimated. The photo of the first quarter of this year shows a growth of 1% that is lower than the 1.5% previously incorporated and finally the fall of 0.4 in the third quarter of the year.

With this quarterly advance, the economy reached an annual variation of 4.7% in GDP in the third quarter of 2021, a rate that also incorporates an adjustment with respect to that estimated by Inegi, which was 4.8 percent.

Inflation and Outsourcing Law leave their mark

Looking at the sectoral integration of GDP, it can be identified that the sectors that pushed economic activity down were services, specifically those that support business, with a 48.1% annual decline, this in original figures. This collapse is attributable to the entry into force of the Outsourcing Law that forced companies to immediately review their hiring schemes, said the Frontier View strategist.

In the disaggregation of the information, Inegi showed that the contraction in the economy It was led by tertiary activities, which had a negative quarterly record of 0.9%, which contrasts with the -0.6% preliminary estimated by Inegi.

Another factor that has impacted tertiary sector activities is the impact of inflation, which did reduce the purchasing power of consumers, VexMás analyst Marisol Huerta explained separately.

According to information from Inegi, the negative performance of the services sector was not compensated in the quarter by the positive data that, on the other hand, showed the primary activities, which reached 1.3% in the quarter and that include the agricultural sector, nor by the secondary ones. of the industry, which barely achieved a 0.9% quarterly advance.

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